What’s the Damage?

So. The IIG have pegged the cost of infrastructure damage at FJD$20mill. That is staggering when one realises that that’s only for infrastructure and that it currently stands as a conservative estimate.

Let’s give DISMAL DISMAC a hand and premilinarily assess that against national costs to Government and what it will mean for the inevitable diaohrrea that our wallets are going to have.

Starting with what the 09 budget forecasted (too bad the Met Director isn't involved as extensively as he should be--one would now surmise in '09 hindsight--in the budget process):

Overview: 2009

1.29 The Fiji economy is forecast to grow by 2.4 percent in 2009. All sectors of the economy are forecast to contribute to this growth. The key factors underpinning this positive growth relate to projected increases in operating and capital expenditure by Government.

1.30 Projected growth in the sugarcane industry, coupled with an envisaged expansion in the forestry, other crops, livestock and fishing industries is forecast to contribute to a 4.6 percent rise in the agriculture, forestry, fishing & subsistence sector.

1.31 A projected increase in tourist arrivals is anticipated to provide the impetus for positive performances in the transport & communication and wholesale & retail trade and hotels & restaurants sectors. In addition, the land transport, water transport and communication industries are also forecast to underpin growth in the in transport & communication sector.

1.32 Forecast growth within the sugar, other food, beverage & tobacco and other non-food industries is expected to drive a 2.4 percent growth in the manufacturing sector.

1.33 Growth in the electricity & water sector is forecast at 2.3 percent while the finance, insurance, real estate & business services and building & construction sectors are both forecast to grow marginally by 0.4 percent.

We would not be wrong to suggest that the document now needs a major reality-checked overhaul.

It is also safe to say that the superlative-laden response's to the budget from folks such as Motibhai’s Mr Mahendra Patel, (I)FNPF Chairman Felix Anthony, (I)FTIB Chief Annie Rogers, Ernst & Youngs Francis Chung, CMDA's Mereia Volavola, Hari Punja, and Ro Teimumu Kepa could do with some better qualifying adjectives.

Sugar, which according to the latest budget contributes “approximately 6% of total GDP, 25% of total domestic exports, and employing 40,500 people” is in big trouble. The Sun reports that the growers are reeling at the total damages that could run into the tens of millions. This does not include the individual townships of the sugar centres that have mills, and who primarily service this industry: Lautoka, Nadi, Tavua, Ba and the Rarawai Mill.

The tourism sector will not be left unscathed in the short to medium term unless Fiji can assure visitors of their safety in addition to the bona fide holiday experience. Australian tourists, our safety net of tourist arrivals are up in arms that the Rudd government is not doing enough to evacuate them, which translates to the racking up alot of already hard-to-come-by "Fiji Me" marketing money to repair. The gateway of Narewa to Fiji’s 5-Star hot-spot in Denarau was affected. All airports are now open and international flights are going but mostly carrying outbound passengers. Domestic flights remain erratic. Many hotels are still presumably operating with skeleton staff. Outlying settlement areas in Nadi who could have tourism workers are also affected. Travel insurance niggles could also pose as a deterrent.

Fiji’s forestry exports, even if negligible will probably also take a nose-dive after loggers were advised to ease off. Today’s Daily Post editorial has some good advice on this which is very appropriate when set against ’09 budget plans for the mahogany resource.

In the construction sector, even though 2008 statistics show an increase in the 3rd quarter of 2008, it is inevitable that there will be next to zero growth in this department for at least the first 2 quarters of 2009 until the economy is stimulated or injected to create/meet this demand.

In the mining sector, gold production is still inching for more/better concessions and it appears that negotiations are on-going.

For the domestic agricultural sector which contributes (as at 2007), 11.6% of our GDP, the IIG had anticipated that it would be “demand driven” in approach. How true. It will be in demand, but supply is stricken and restricted to water-logged crops across agricultural centres. Farmers are being advised to harvest their crops now and plant (if and when they can) agricultural root-crops that are quick to mature. Any export promotion of agricultural products is going to have to be removed in order to service the domestic food security needs first. And we’d be far better off redirecting the said $50mill for biofuel production towards this.

Retailers are becoming agitated at the slow pace of assistance to them.

For essential services:

Electricity supply to some affected areas is still undergoing work.

Clean running water, a basic survival need is also affected. Notably in Sigatoka.

Telecommunications a core link in any disaster was hampered drastically, with slow restorations todate. Although collectively they are attempting to offer some communications relief to the nation: Telecom, Digicel and Vodafone. Radio broadcasts of pivotal safety advisories out to the rural populace is a must particularly when the main feed services the AM frequency and in the vernacular. It is no wonder that many were caught unaware.

Health services must be immediately prioritized after disaster relief. Already there is a broken sewer in Sigatoka, the mortuary is full, disease outbreaks a distinct possibility, the water-borne diseases reality, and to top it off the blood bank is low on blood. The safe and hygienic disposal of all waterlogged goods/products/homeware/dead animals/debris will also need to be overseen. The last thing we need is an epidemic.

In terms of immediate disaster relief. There appears to be still a severe lack of coordination by DISMAC, and the steady filling up of evacuation centres needs close management. Any and all hands still need to be expeditiously reaching out to stem the rising tide of hunger that is out there.

So what’s the outlook for us everyday fullahs?

Spiked inflation especially on the everyday staples. That’s your groceries, such as milk/butter. For those in the rural centres, because of the extensive infrastructure damage to roads, getting food in will be challenging. Imported rice is already very costly. Tinned goods need to be vigorously checked against use-by dates, pricing and dents. The price of flour remains stable for the moment.

Fresh fruit n vegetables, root crops and fish supplies will dwindle which jacks up these prices.

Depending on how steady the global oil prices stay, fuel prices should remain the same and therefore so should bus-fares and electricity bills. We’ll be damned if FEA gives us any more tales about the Monasavu Dam. Gas and kerosene prices should remain the same also.

The price of back-to-school needs for schooling crew should not increase but spare a thought for those who may have lost already purchased materials during the floods.

The cost of drugs and antibiotics will also need watching.

Concessions or assistance with building materials such as roofing iron, cement, timber, bricks, louvres etc would be very handy for those with housing damage. The same applies for clothing/shoes and household essentials like bedding, pots/pans, cutlery, digging spades/forks, cane knives etc.

The Prices and Income Board overseen by the Consumer Council will need to be out there policing price hikes expeditiously especially in the rural outposts.

What does all this mean for the IIG?

For starters they need to kill all low-priority expenditure. Low priority for the next couple of months means anything that does not involve disaster rehabilitation, essential services (most especially health), mandatory infrastructural maintenance and education. Everything else is unnecessary in the bigger scheme of things.

The Charter malarkey which is costed at $2.4mill is a start.

Today’s 2 new appointments in the AGs Office can be next as well as any other additions to the IIG cabinet, constitutional offices or civil service posts.

The carrot dangling tax rebate means that we will not meet the tax revenue of $1.331 bill for next years budget as outlined in the IIPM’s budget speech. In fact some unscrupulous entities could end up making a profit on this offer, if left unchecked.

The departure tax increase has kicked in and Tourism Fiji’s Patrick Wong's assertions in November last year that it was a soft tax easily cushioned could be haunting him now. The IIG need to make up their mind as to whether they really want tourism dollars or not. Adding any new costs to visitors is not the greatest of idea's.

The insidious road use levy also needs rescinding. Uhhh yeah…what roads? For heavy duty vehicles that are apparently being targetted, it's hard to see any reason why they will be tearing up and down the highways now.

The new bottled water tax has been gazetted and it is supposed to be in line with the projected income of $1.5mill. The IIG will need to think that one through again as there are not many other industries that can prop up the economy right now. Therefore they need to be keeping those still kicking verrrry happy.

As noted earlier before the $50mill earmarked for biofuels will come in very handy for more pressing priorities of disaster rehab.

The bottom-line is that we have a very bleak outlook with minimal options to fund the many, many, many pressing needs. Ultimately it's not a good time to be II PM Minister cum II Sugar Minister cum II Finance Minister. All this can change in an instant Mr Bainimarama if you step down and call for elections.

In case we still carry a torch of the pipe-dream that China is our knight in shining armour, spare a thought for what’s happening in Papua New Guinea.

Folks, please continue to keep your eyes peeled on the weather updates and spread the word

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/FJ_cc.html

http://www.met.gov.fj

http://www.nadraki.com

To view pictures of the recent natural disaster damages, click on the galleries below as hosted by the appropriate organisations:

http://www.fijitimes.com.fj/galleries.aspx

http://www.fijilive.com/gallery/subcat-pictures.php?sub_cat_id=1318

http://www.radiofiji.com.fj/gallery.php?shw_pg=1&cat=82

http://www.met.gov.fj/images/flood/BA_Flood.pdf

http://www.met.gov.fj/images/flood/Nadi_Flood.pdf

http://www.met.gov.fj/images/flood/Labasa_Flood.pdf

http://www.met.gov.fj/images/flood/Sigatoka_Flood.pdf

Wassup Blood!

If you grew up in Fiji during the 80s and 90s you would be familiar with the slang phrase “Blood” often touted among mostly adolescent males. The application of the term is to replace your conversation parties name with the term BLOOD e.g. "Io Blood", "Set Blood", "Va'cava/What's Up Blood?" etc.

Perhaps it was a lift-out from the LA gang “The Bloods” and the fight for young people to be emancipated from the struggles they had at the time. But for those who were audience to this term of almost-endearment being bounced around the streets of Suva, you knew that the term meant that even if you weren’t related, you were Blood or bonded somehow by a common belief or interest. That could include the area where you grew up, a common school, or cliques based on a common interest like break-dancing (THE craze at the time and now metamorphised as crunking).

There has been a resurgence of this term with our local young rappers. Perhaps it gives the music a romanticised “hood” flavour and makes it therefore marketable and edgy. Whatever the case, for those who gave birth to this term, it meant many real things for them and what they endured and overcame. It is a slang term however that is laden with philosophical wisdom.

Our bond with each other is that underneath it all we are all flesh, bone and blood. We are fallible. Even the IIG. Especially against mother nature and the higher power.

Blood, the liquid itself that sustains life by coursing through our veins, is the basic building block of life. It is the essence of humanity and what binds our commonness as mere mortals underneath our external and often superficial cloaks of ethnic, social, economic, political, historical and traditional differences.

The last 2 weeks of the opening of the heavens with the torrential rains, in the 3^rd week of the 3^rd year of the IIG rule, has seen the concept of Blood come to life for the people of and from Fiji. Wherever they are. The appeals and hand-raising to lend a hand, brings warmth to the heart. This is what humanity and the application of the Blood concept is all about.

Media reports heart-wrenchingly detail the loss of life and limb of many of our people. Disappointment's abound on the sloooow action of the IIG in getting out there to help the people. Some of the let-downs include laying the blame on people’s unpreparedness…um ok…like they had a crystal ball predicting their living rooms would become swimming pools two weeks ago.

The Commissioner Central Col Mosese Tikoitoga, an integral member of the DISMAC team, who through this role should have empathy as a key personality trait, is deluded enough to think that people who have lost all their earthly belongings are, despite being stranded, in possession of a few G’s under the soggy mattresses and therefore still able to rehabilitate themselves.

And don’t let us get started on the unavailability of the army to be out there on the front-lines either. Life for some must be getting soft and cushy up at QEB that they’re now afraid of getting wet. Sigh.

However one can whinge all week about this unelected lot but people are out there needing help ASAP and Padre James’ inspiring editorial today brings it all together for us. So much so, that we are reminded of the singer Shaggy’s initiative against AIDS in a project with friends by way of song titled “Save A Life”. The lyrics speak to the heart of what we’re facing here in Fiji right now:

I dare you to make a difference and I dare you take a stand
Let me dare you to think of someone else who's in need of a helping hand
But if I dare you to show our children what it really means to love
Well I dare you to just imagine there's nothing that we can't rise above
Can I dare you to be the person with the will to make it right
And I dare you to have the conscience to the cause and to join the fight
Well I dare you take a moment to imagine how it feels
To take a look at someone else's pain, and offer some relief

Take a stand, make it right
Lend a hand, save a life
Understand it's alright
Lend a hand, save a life

Stay strong, safe and apply the spirit of Blood wherever, however, whenever you can. Hold tight to the fact that there is always a rainbow after the storm.

We can only weather this together Blood – Yes We Can.

2009: Yes We Can change the script

The dawn of a new year is only hours away. This is the time of the year where many reflect on the successes, failures, challenges and opportunities for the next 365 days. It’s also a time where many prepare resolutions and lists of what, when, why and how to do better.

For the past 2 years however many of us, through no fault of our own, have seen our own lists being drastically lacerated. Lists of plans and ambitions for our households, familial connections, kitchen cupboards, careers, access to education & health, savings and investments, job prospects and essentially a future have over the past 2 years been hijacked and hacked by the junta.

The question to be asked however is, will we let this continue in 2009?

At Intelligentsiya we only just caught up with this inspirational Letter to the Editor titled “Yes We Can” which featured on Fiji Sun and was thankfully made available on the blogosphere by fellow bloggers at Fiji Democracy Now.

Read the rousing letter that takes a leaf out of US President elect Barack Obama’s mantra here.

You can view an equally rousing Youtube of the speech put to music or download the tune (note: please exercise responsibility. Listen, delete after 24 hours and purchase the album).

For our last update for 2008 we think it only fitting that we take our cues, by way of a blog theme, from these consistent and unrelentless demanders of democracy to share some thoughts for 2009, by way of some suggested New Years resolutions.

2009 New Years Resolutions for the IIG

1. Hold elections
2. Hold elections
3. Hold elections
4. Move, migrate, get out of town, basically just fade into oblivion - Yes You Will
   

2009 New Years Resolutions for the People of Fiji

1. Don’t give in to intimidation by the IIG and continue to demand constitutional rule
2. Don’t give in to intimidation by the IIG and continue to demand constitutional rule
3. Don’t give in to intimidation by the IIG and continue to demand constitutional rule
4. Change the script – Yes We Can

2009 New Years Resolutions for the Blogging Community

1. Stay Strong and Focussed
2. Continue to be the glue that helps keep the people together and focused on the goal of Elections in 2009
3. Kick IIG Ass hardER
4. Help change the script – Yes We Can

Let’s continue to push the tempo and not permit them a 3^rd year of illegal rule. Their time is well and truly up.

Peace out 2008 and bring on 2009!

Tis the Season for Hope

We know the annual adage of December being the season for jollyness, but frankly in this country, today, it’s pretty damn hard to be full of Christmas cheer. And that’s putting it lightly.

But Christmas in the islands is all about family. When you’re cold and alone abroad there’s nothing like a memory bank rewind of the family Christmas lovo to invoke warm fuzzies of spending real quality time with the fano. These are the types of memories that can at a drop of a hat, make one throw expenditure caution to the wind and ramp up the credit card interest, just to get home.

So while Frank et al continue to think they’re firmly in the driver’s seat, the reality is they’re not. The global economic melt-down and the still being rolled out impacts will not leave the country unscathed. In case the IIG* still delude themselves into thinking that China and India will bail this country out, they are very verrrrrry wrong.

Crunch time is here folks. The budget has been passed without any fanfare and if you read the fine print of the budget documents the national finance honcho’s still depend on a lot of aid to keep the country running. Think about it, do we seriously HAVE $1.715 billion dollars lying around just waiting to be spent?

When the global economic powers reel, we small fries explode. Aid will dry up. If China and India have to pick between providing for their citizens versus extending their foreign relationships via aid, guess who’s going to get priority?

After the recent Mumbai tragedy, Dr. Manmohan Singh will clearly be focusing on national security. Bugger Fiji and our small Chaudhry-as-victim-induced woes.

China on the other hand while being touted as the economic saviour of the world has much to do in coercing her people to SPEND in order to stimulate growth. Growth that stood at 12% in the lead up to the Olympics but which has since receded. Think about that one for a minute without getting too steeped in stereotypes – getting Chinese people to unstuff their proverbial mattresses will be a very interesting process and a case in point is that while the Chinese Government has injected stimulus packages to encourage consumer expenditure, no one is biting yet.

Which brings us right back to our little corner of the world.

Knowing what we know it is inevitable that 2009 will bring many, many challenges for Frank et al. If they’re enjoying perks that they never knew in their lifetimes it is unlikely they have aspirations to let go of this good thing just yet. But as we continue to predict, it will be their love and lack of money that will send them packing.

What does that mean for us everyday folk? It means we should continue to spend very very verrrrrrry wisely. Frank et al needs your money to keep the economy ummm humming (note we do not use the term “buzzing”) so if there’s less of your cash in the system, the machine will break down.

It also means that we need to continue to strengthen our family connections and keep an active eye out for each other.

But most of all, it means that the Christmas season is the Season of Hope. Just as Christ’s birth heralded hope for us mere mortals, let this Christmas usher in renewed hope for Fiji that 2009 will be the year of change and new leadership.

Seasons Greetings from Intelligentsiya.



*We here at Intelligentsiya refuse to subscribe to the sham ruling proclaiming Frank & Co legit. It was and is a sham ruling by a very sham(ful) judiciary.